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The Winds & Waves of Change in South-West Arabia
Filed under: South, guest posts — by Jane Novak at 9:19 am on Tuesday, November 25, 2008
A piece that contains some of the names of the 59 southern leaders the regime has issued a warrent for and notes South Arabia is willing to cooperate with NATO:
The Winds & Waves of Change in South-West Arabia- by Ian Garner
The Key issues in Yemen are:-
1-The predictions of economic collapse in 2009 by many experts although some say in 2011.
2-The probable return of civil war (the sixth) in Sa’da in 09 although the Huthis have very recently announced heir acceptance of a federal or confederal structure.Sanaa will not accept a confederation.
3-The anti-parliamentary elections (April 09) hand grenades & riots (ongoing) in the South & the North e.g., Hajja.
4-The election of a Government on 1st Nov.08 in the South under the name of South Arabia (first used officially by the UK in 1959:The Federation of South Arabia) with central govt. troops watching-RPGs deterred and many of the troops were Southerners not keen on bloodshed.
A warrant of arrest for 59 prominent members of the South Arabia National Struggle-Movement-Hirak(reported by Mukalla Press net on 25 October 08). Charges include Sedition, Treason and Cesession.
The South Arabia movement relies upon Security Council Resolutions 924 and 931 of 1994 for renegotiating the unity accord. If the warrant is enforced it may lead to civil commotion.
5-Somali piracy in the Gulf of Aden with Yemen unable to handle challenges on the ground let alone at sea.
Yemen has only 2 vessels capable of reaching the deep waters.The previous Admiral,Ahmad al-Hasani,is in exile in London leading the Taj opposition organisation.
The fears of Yemen of the intervention of Nato and Russia in the Gulf of Aden was explained by the Saudi newspaper”al-Watan al-Saudia”on Sunday,22 Nov.08: Mukalla in Yemen is the Logistics port of the Somali pirates who pay Yemeni officials for information as confessed during negotiations for the release of the Saudi tanker.
Economic collapse will worsen the tensions and the anti-election campaign will intensify. NYMEX & Brent were below $50 a barrel (Nov.08) and Yemeni oil trades a lot lower (Yemen is not even part of OPEC).
The South Arabian Parliament of 352 Members(the National Council-al-Majlis al-Watani)will be named within 2 months and a confrontation is inevitable.
Recognition of South Arabia is expected e.g., by Kuwait.
South Arabia is willing to collaborate with NATO in the Gulf of Aden and the Bab al-Mandab Strait(island of Perim-Mayyun) as international waters are subject to international protection, and South Arabia will respect the right of innocent passage. The Socotra archipelago was always administered from Aden as the British navy was well-equipped there followed by the Soviet.
Since the 1986 civil war in Aden the navy was grossly neglected.
Socotra is in fact closer to Pantuland in the Federation of Somalia and Berbera in Somaliland.
Conclusion:at this stage moral help is needed to persuade Sanaa not to take action that will precipitate a civil war.
Names of the leaders of the 59:-
Hasan Ahmad Ba’um(president elect)
Brigadier Nasir Ali al-Nuba
Ali Munassar Muhammad(who met the US & UK ambassadors in Aden clandestinely)
Husain Zaid bin Yahya
Advocate Yahya Ghalib al-Shu’aibi
Dr.Muhammad Ali al-Saqqaf(Sorbonne)
Muhammad Salim Akkush(former minister)
Ahmad Bamu’alim
Muhammad Tammah
Gamal abdul-Latif Obadi
Nasir al-Khabji
Salah al-Shanfara
Shallal Ali Shayi’
Ali al-Shayba Nasir
Shaikh Abdullah Hasan al-Nakhibi
Dr.Abduh al-Ma’tari
Qasim Othman al-Da’iri
Muhammad Sikkin
Nasir Thabit al-Awlaqi
Dr.Nasir Huwaidar
Fadi Hasan Ba’um
The wanted are members of the South Arabia Provisional Govt. and members of the Executive Committees of the 7 governorates of the South
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